Are transformative agreements the path to Open Access? Are they designed to pressure academic libraries into absorbing ever-heftier subscription fees? Are you hazy on the details or unsure why this matters if you are not working in acquisitions? Transformative agreements (TA) are large academic publishers’ latest model for increasing revenue and exploiting the Open Access movement. The agreements demand that institutions no longer subscribe just for access but subscribe to publish. This has resulted in subscription quotes tripling in the first year, with nothing to prevent them from continuing to rise as increasing numbers of scholars choose to publish “free” OA articles. This increase impacts which scholars, institutions and regions have the funds to publish in large journals. Researchers in the global south are leading calls to action. How are North American libraries responding? Library consortia can use their leverage to push back against bad big deals, and there have been some shining cases where they have at least delayed TA. In other cases, consortial support of OA paves the way for transformative agreements. Unsurprisingly, transformative agreements are used by big publishers as a way to increase profit. This poster shares research using business tools to uncover and understand those business-driven decisions, and how to use this information to predict the future of Open Access, and actions to mitigate that trajectory.